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Hello, Radio Enthusiast!
The very large coronal hole that has kept the geomagnetic field
at active to minor storm levels is no longer in view. This is
giving us a nice period of quiet geomagnetic activity, with the
result being that we are seeing propagation that is more normal
over most of the paths around the world.
A smaller coronal hole is currently near the central solar
meridian and is expected to lead to minor geomagnetic storm
conditions from Sunday, 21-XII-2003 onwards. Between now and
then, it is expected that the 10.7-cm flux will climb a bit,
perhaps as high as 130, while the planetary A index (Ap) should
remain at or below 10. From 21-XII-2003 onward, the flux will
gradually fall to about 100, with some elevation of the Ap index
as the geomagnetic field becomes active again due to that coronal
hole.
After 31-XII-2003, we.ll see conditions become a bit rougher,
again. However, this is due to the coronal hole that we.re seeing,
not because of any major flare. Between today and the first of the
New Year, there is only a slim chance of any moderate flare, while
there will be a good number of minor small flares (B- and C-class
flares). There is also a small chance for a proton event from mid
to late December. This might make over-the-pole propagation a bit
tough.
At the time of writing this bulletin, the solar wind speed is at
about 400 km per second, which is a normal speed, with only a slight
southerly orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. As of
17-XII-2003, the sunspot count is 92, and the 10.7-cm flux is 118.
The Ap is 10, and the Kp (planetary K index) is 3.
This translates to some very good conditions for the High
Frequencies (HF). Expected MUFs are normal, rather than depressed
as we.ve seen for the last couple of weeks. The season is great for
worldwide DX on HF, and this period between now and the New Year
will offer great conditions for most of the time. The highest
frequencies will have some long-range F-layer openings (since the
flux will be above 100), but they will be short. Lower frequencies
will propagate much better over most paths.
Come by and check out the online Propagation and Radio (SWL and
Amateur) discussion forum, where a group of us are discussing the
science and current events of space weather and propagation:
http://hfradio.org/forums/
In addition, you can always get the latest live space weather and
propagation information at http://prop.hfradio.org -- or with a
WAP phone, at http://wap.hfradio.org/
Happy Dxing!
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor for CQ, CQ VHF, and Popular Communications :
: Quarterly Propagation Columnist for Monitoring Times Magazine :
: Creator of live propagation center - http://prop.hfradio.org/ :
: Member, US Army Miltary Affiliate Radio Service (MARS) AAR0JA :
: 122.93W 47.67N / Brinnon, Washington USA - CN87 - CW/SSB/DIGI :
: Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer -- AAM0EWA :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, AR Lighthouse Society 144 :
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