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Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting Extinction

To: cq-contest@contesting.com
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting Extinction
From: Eric Hilding <dx35@hilding.com>
Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2006 18:19:21 -0700
List-post: <mailto:cq-contest@contesting.com>
Kenneth, WM5R, wrote:

 > So, I would be inclined to conclude the empircal evidence shows that
 > contesting overall is not in decline, and in fact DX contesting, and
 > expecially DX contesting on CW, has never been more popular than it is 

Very interesting stats, but IMHO what is still missing is the AGE FACTOR.

Since we are all going to die (someday), if some increased log submissions 
are perhaps because of the simplicity of software logging Cabrillo files 
and quick email submissions, I think we really need to better understand 
the AGE FACTOR in looking to the future of Contesting.

If 50% of a particular event log submissions are from the 60+ age group, 
how many of these ops will be here (or able to operate) in 10 years?  20 
years?  How does such an attrition dynamic play out if other younger 
Contester age groups are not increasing in size? Think about this!

Due to CC&R problems and the costs in general of building any type of 
competitive HF station, one might think that for practical reasons (QTH & 
$$$) that VHF Contesting would become very attractive.

I really think the AGE FACTOR needs to be more heavily "weighted" in any 
analysis, because it is a Reality Check in mix.  The math is simple:  If we 
lose more players than come in, the path is unfortunately downward toward 
extinction ;-(  Momentary "spikes" in event log submissions may be 
meaningless without knowing the AGE FACTOR of parcticipants involved.

Curiously, I'd be interested in knowing the number of ARRL SS log 
submissions in the 2002-2005 period compared to 1962-1965.

FWIW & 73...

Rick, K6VVA

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