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Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting Extinction

To: CQ Contest <cq-contest@contesting.com>
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting Extinction
From: "Kenneth E. Harker" <kenharker@kenharker.com>
Date: Fri, 13 Oct 2006 12:11:09 -0700
List-post: <mailto:cq-contest@contesting.com>
     Earlier in this thread, I pointed out that contest log submissions for
most HF contests worldwide have generally been growing over the past decade
and solar cycle:


     Following that post, some have suggested that just because log 
submissions are up, activity might still be declining.  Log submissions could
be up simply because it's easier than ever to submit a log, and many who 
used to participate but who would not submit logs are doing so now.  

     I have run some queries on the Contest Score Database 
(http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/scoredb/), which now has over 340,000 line scores
from over 50 contests, and pulled out the high QSO total for each contest 
for each year (for which there is line score data).  Charts and a discussion
of the numbers appear in this new article:


     As I look at the best empirical data available to me, I still fail to see 
anything that would convince me that HF contesting is approaching extinction.
I've heard all the usual anecdotal concerns before, but the facts remain 
that log submissions are increasing and the high QSO totals have kept growing, 
even as the sunspots were declining.

Kenneth E. Harker WM5R

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