I wonder if we'll ever see a true SDR from a major manufacturer. If the
radio could be upgraded by new firmware / software, there's no reason for
someone to upgrade the hardware. Right now, the ham radio market is driven
by hardware upgraders.
Look at audio CD technology. The specs for CD recording haven't changed in
over 20 years. A 20 year old CD player will play a new CD. Early on, there
were a few minor improvements in performance (comb filters, oversampling,
etc), but that's all pretty much ironed out now. Why hasn't the frequency or
dynamic range of a CD been increased? It's because, for the most part, any
increase in performance would be unnoticeable by even the most serious
audiophile. The difference could only be measured by test equipment.
So what drives the CD player market? New consumers or additional convenience
features to make existing consumers want to upgrade (well, also replacement
of worn out / broken equipment).
Like it or not, the ham radio market is barely steady (if not declining),
and very little that a manufacturer can do will cause a vast influx of new
hams. New ham radio consumers can't be considered a major factor.
Today's current crop of digital HF receivers has only marginal improvements
in receiver performance (to me, receive performance is the key) factors over
yesterday's. We haven't seen order of magnitude increases in performance in
a long time. While the Pegasus certainly isn't a top of the line receiver, I
could envision a Pegasus II that had performance to rival the Orion (hint,
hint). However, once I had one of these beasts, why would I ever buy a new
radio, especially if I could add convenience features with new software
(either control or firmware)?
So if we reach the place where we have a top of the line performer that can
be enhanced with software upgrades, the market will pretty much dry up once
everyone has one.
One way this might happen would be if a manufacturer would realize that with
a SDR, they truly are in the software business and found a way to make money
with upgrades. Would the average ham pay $300 to upgrade their $3000 radio
from an XXX to an XXX Plus, if that just involved a software change? My bet
would be, sadly, that a few would, but others would find a way to pirate a
copy.
Mark
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