What Frank says (below) is 100% correct. There is simply no substitute for
time in the chair. I never use any propagation prediction methods. I know
from more than three decades of lowband DXing and contesting experience when
the openings are most likely to occur but I can't predict them in advance.
Often the openings last only a few minutes, so timing is everything.
There are seasonal trends that favor greyline LP propagation during certain
months, but there is no way to predict on a day-to-day basis when it will
happen. For example, from my New England QTH, greyline openings to JA can
occur on 80m during Nov., Dec., and Jan. (and sometimes Feb.), just after
our sunset, but there are only a small handful of days that I would
characterize as "good" days where you don't need a world-class station to
make the grade. Even more rarely, the greyline will bring in other parts of
Asia, like UA0, BY, 9M2, etc., around the same time as JA. I was one of the
fortunate ones to work XX9D earlier this week on 80. I had just turned on
the radio right after my sunset and caught him CQing. It was a day of
highly exceptional greyline propagation, which made it possible to work XX9
through the Eu wall.
On 160, greyline LP openings in W1 land are far more rare than on 80. I
have heard long path JA's on Top Band no more than half a dozen times in 30
years, but have never been able to work one. However, I have been able to
work VK6, 9M2, and JT via greyline LP on 160 but it happens maybe once a
decade. You simply have to be there when it happens.
73, John W1FV
-----Original Message-----
From: Topband [mailto:topband-bounces@contesting.com] On Behalf Of
donovanf@starpower.net
Sent: Friday, February 17, 2017 10:44 AM
To: topband@contesting.com
Subject: Re: Topband: greyline prop forecast
Hi Kris,
There's no substitute for butt in chair time if you want to work grey line
long path DX on 80 meters. 160 meters is also possible, but much more
difficult.
Just check your local sunrise/sunset times and the sunrise/sunset times in
your target area and sit your butt in your chair especially during the 30
minutes leading up to sunrise at the eastern end of the path.
While we've been discussing this topic, at least half a dozen east coast USA
80 meter DXers worked XX9D on the 80 meter greyline longpath at about 2300Z
and none of us were aided by forecasts.
Imagine that...
I know of no 80 meter DXer who has achieved greyline long path success
through forecasts, nor do we know of any technical breakthroughs on the
horizon that will change this in the foreseeable future.
73
Frank
W3LPL
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