On Mon, Apr 07, 2003 at 01:51:06AM +0000, jon jones wrote:
> >"Based on the data
> Gene presented, I don't doubt there has been a decline in participation."
I think there are several things going on with VHF log submissions.
> too. I figured it was maybe due to the poor prop. in the last couple of
> contests.
I think poor propagation tends to reduce log submissions by the
causal guy - who might only make a handful of contacts
during poor conditons but I think there are other forces.
Namely high sun spot activity.
Since 1996 the sunspots have been on a steady increase.
Here are the smoothed sunspot numbers:
1975 15.5
1976 12.6
1977 27.5
1978 92.5
1979 155.4
1980 154.6
1981 140.4
1982 115.9
1983 66.6
1984 45.9
1985 17.9
1986 13.4
1987 29.4
1988 100.2
1989 157.6
1990 142.6
1991 145.7
1992 94.3
1993 54.6
1994 29.9
1995 17.5
1996 8.6
1997 21.5
1998 64.3
1999 93.3
2000 119.6
2001 111.0
This is almost an exact mirror of the decrease in VHF log submissions.
K9AKS made a post to this list where he gave use the log submisson numbers.
You can find his entire post here:
http://lists.contesting.com/pipermail/vhfcontesting/2002-September/001029.html
But let me pull a few things from it:
Here are some numbers. First, the number of logs submitted for the
three ARRL VHF/UHF contests since 1975 from QST write-ups (note a few of
these numbers are estimates or interpolations, but the overall trends
should be correct):
Jan June Sept
1975 590 340 285
630 410 230
780 490 340
840 480 330
890 510 410
1980 995 500 380
970 540 390
940 590 448
950 510 436
800 590 450
1985 880 530 434
890 630 460
840 691 386
845 650 400
930 650 425
1990 910 600 439
912 480 415
958 610 591
1036 818 621
1200 820 714
1995 1150 837 720
1150 921 710
1020 837 752
1010 800 700
900 701 606
2000 820 710 582
799 680 553
If you take this number and put them in a spreadsheet and graph
them some we can see some very intresting things.
Here is a graph of June contest log submissions compaired to the SSN:
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/june-ssn.gif
I always do the june contest but being an active HF contester
my January and September activty has only really happened
at the bottom of the sunspot cycle - I suspect there
or a few more like me out there.
Next here are the graphs of log submissions over the years:
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/janvhf.gif
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/junevhf.gif
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr/misc/vhfcharts/septvhf.gif
The black liner line is a trendline - as you can see the
trend going forward is positive - so I think it is still
too early to say these contests are sick.
In looking at the last few June contests you will note that
the years with poor Eskip - log susbmissions are down.
I think this is to be expected.
1995 837
1996 921 This year is high because the E-skip was really really good.
1997 837
1998 800 This year the eskip and tropo were good
1999 701 Eskip was bad
2000 710 Eskip was better for some but overall bad.
2001 880
While I am always up for finding ways to get more folks on the radio
and also to get them to send in logs, I do not think that we can
yet say that these contests are on the decline.
It would be intresting to look at the logs submitted to see
how many unique callsigns show up each year in the stations worked.
That might give us anohter gauge as to the health of the
VHF contests and of VHF activity.
As far as getting folks that do get on the radio to send in logs...
well I am not sure what to do. Maybe if all of us talk all
the locals into sending in their logs - that might be a good start.
I know that here in Texas there is a VHF/UHF club that has
a number of member who make contacts in all of the VHF contests
but many or indeed most of them do not send in their logs.
Maybe it is too much trouble or maybe they just dont care to
send in a log. I must admit that I fall into this catagory
often in contests where I only get on for a few hours. This is
a habit that I have been trying to change in myself.
--
George Fremin III - K5TR
geoiii@kkn.net
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr
--
George Fremin III - K5TR
geoiii@kkn.net
http://www.kkn.net/~k5tr
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