Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of occasional B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 751
(S07W84). However, SXI images indicate a small, bright active region
on the east limb at N01 which was the source for a B8 event at 1814
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event during
the next 3 days (11-13 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet until sometime late on 11 April when conditions
are expected to increase to mostly active levels due to a coronal
hole. Active conditions from the coronal hole are expected to
continue for 12-13 April.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 088
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 010/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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