:Issued: 2004 Nov 15 1249 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41115
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Nov 2004, 1201UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Nov 2004 until 17 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 004
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA 0700) remains by far the most active
sunspot group currently visible. It was responsible for nearly all flares
observed during the past 24 hours, which includes 3 C-class flares. The group
retains a complex magnetic structure and is expected to produce further C-class
flares with a small chance for an M-flare. At the east limb, M-flaring sunspot
group Catania 49 (NOAA 0687) is about to return. EIT images indicate that this
group is still active.
Geomagnetic conditions are quiet. The solar wind speed stands at 450km/s and is
slowly decreasing. The IMF is northwards. We expect quiet conditions to continue
the next few days. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole is now near the
central meridian and may lead to active geomagnetic conditions towards the end
of the week.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 075
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 100
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 010
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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