[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  The
plague field in Region 713 (S09W78) showed a significant increase in
coverage along with the production of multiple C-class flares today,
the largest was a C7/1f event that occurred at 28/0010Z.  An
increase in sunspot area and an increase in magnetic complexity were
observed this period.  Region 715 (N04E74) began to rotate into view
and was numbered today.  It is already exhibiting a large
asymmetrical sunspot. This region was responsible for the C7/Sf
event that occurred at 28/1801Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed between 28/1800 and 2100Z,
likely due to a sustained southward Bz which was  observed by the
ACE spacecraft.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled throughout the
period.

III.  Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 105
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  005/008-006/008-004/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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