:Issued: 2004 Oct 23 1235 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41023
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Oct 2004, 1157UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Oct 2004 until 25 Oct 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 018
COMMENT: Solar activity looks set to increase further, although no major flares
occurred in the past 24 hours. The sunspot count continues to go up. The largest
and most active sunspot group is still Catania 49 (NOAA 0687), which continues
to grow in size and complexity. We expect further M-class flares from this
group. Also Catania 43 (NOAA 0684) near the disk centre is growing and may
generate C-class flares. Catania 39 (NOAA 0682) near the west limb is stable in
size, and is likely to generate several more C-class flares, with a small chance
for an M-flare. A new group at the east limb, Catania 52 (return of NOAA 0680)
seems also quite active.
Geomagnetic conditions are currently still quiet. None of the recent CMEs is
thought to be geo-effective (most were directed to the east). The solar wind
speed is decreasing and currently at 360 km/s. However, we expect it to increase
again soon due to a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. This may lead to
active conditions for the next few days.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 129
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 123
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 007
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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