[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 718 (S07E07) produced
several C-class flares; the largest was a C4.2/Sf flare at 13/1712.
Region 720 (N13E24) has shown significant growth in area and sunspot
number, however, only low level B-class activity has been associated
with the region thus far.  This region is now 1080 millionths with a
beta delta magnetic configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events.
Energetic activity is possible from Region 720 due to its rapid
development.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active conditions were
due to the persistence of a high speed stream.  The solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased from approximately 720 km/s to 650 km/s during
the past 24 hours.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 116
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  018/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/015-005/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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