[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 713 (S08W47)
produced a B9.9 flare at 26/1240Z.  Region 713 is still in a decay
phase.  A long duration B4.3 flare was observed on SXI imagery at
26/1929Z from a spotless plage region at S16E40.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class activity from Region 713.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The solar wind speed
is still elevated around 500 km/s due to the continued influence of
a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods at high latitudes on 27 December.  Expect quiet to unsettled
on 28 and 29 December.

III.  Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 092
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  008/010-006/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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