:Issued: 2004 Nov 25 1256 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41125
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Nov 2004, 1240UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Nov 2004 until 27 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 003
COMMENT: The earth is still in the influence zone from the small coronal hole,
now situated in the SW quadrant, triggering active to unsetteled geomagnetic
conditions. At lower latitudes, no K indices higher than 3 have been recorded.
We expect these conditions to persist for the rest of the UT-day. Currently we
have eruptive solar conditions, mostly due to new region Catania 78 (NOAA 0706),
listed as a beta region. Yesterday three C flare erupted from this region: a
C5.9, a C8.2 and a C9.8 respectively peaking at 8:34 UT, at 17:25 UT and at
21:45 UT. Today a C2.6 flare peaked at 10:58 UT, but we have no information on
the source region yet. More flaring from region Cat 78 is expected, with a high
chance for M flares.
A minor geomagnetic storm is in progress. NOAA gives Kp=4,5. This is probably
due to the narrow coronal hole, now situated in the SW quadrant. We expect
active conditions for the rest of the UT-day.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 061
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 107
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 016
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 009
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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