[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Jan 22 1214 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jan 2005, 1200UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Jan 2005 until 24 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 012

COMMENT: Tonight (Jan 21-Jan 22), the K_p went up to 8, Izmiran
measured local K-indices of 7,8,7. A shock in the L1 point was
identified at 16:48UT, Jan 21. The B_z when up to more then -20nT,
leading to this severe geomagnetic storm. Once the shock-front passed
the L1 point, the proton fluxes measured by GOES-12 showed a stronger
decrease. At the moment of writing this bulletin, only the >10MeV curve
was slightly above the threshold. The shock is possibly the passing of
the CME associated with X7.1 flare on Jan 20, peaking at 07:01. At this
moment, we return to quiet conditions. Late today, tomorrow, we expect
periods of active conditions as we come in a coronal hole wind stream.
Sunspot group 05 (NOAA 0720) turned over the west limb. Group nr 11 (NOAA
0725) grew in size and complexity and is a possible candidate for
producing C-flares.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Jan 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 068
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 114
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 056

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
21  1347  1355 1410        M1.2                                     04 0718

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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