Severe to extreme geomagnetic storming continues globally. Both of the recent
M9 and X3 solar flares produced Earth facing
coronal mass ejections in the last 18 hours, so more geomagnetic storming is
expected through November 13, 2004.
If and when mid latitude K indices like Boulder reaches K of 9 look for visible
aurora as far south as 28 deg. N/S latitude.
Here in central Florida yesterday during the day I heard no ham radio signals
on 10, 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters. There were a few weak
International SW broadcasters audible on 13, 15, 16 and 19 meters. Yesterday
evening ham radio signals on 160, 80 and 40 meters were weak
and fluttery with deep fading. SW broadcaster signals on 120, 90, 75, 60, 49
and 41 meters were extremely fluttery and at times totally garbled due to the
southward expanded aurora oval. On the MF AM broadcast band most channels were
occupied by central and South American stations only.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
:Issued: 2004 Nov 10 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41110
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Nov 2004, 0955UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Nov 2004 until 12 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=
50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 134
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 146
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 094
COMMENT: A severe geomagnetic storm is ongoing. Geomagnetic observatories
worldwide have reported K-indices up to 9 the past 24 hours. The two shocks that
arrived yesterday are probably due to the halo CMEs that left the Sun at 16:30
on Nov 07 and at 02:06 on Nov 08 respectively. The shock that arrived yesterday
evening pushed the solar wind speed up to 800 km/s; in the mean time this has
decreased to about 650 km/s. The IMF turned strongly southwards for a few hours
following the shock. It then was northwards for the rest of the UT day, but
early this morning it again switched to strong southwards orientation. At the
moment, both the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength are
decreasing, so we expect geomagnetic conditions going down to major storm level,
followed by minor storm level later today.
The M8.9 flare of 17:19 UT yesterday was accompanied by a fast full halo CME,
which is expected to arrive tomorrow afternoon. We thus expect major to severe
storm conditions again in the second half of Nov 11. This morning's X2.5 flare
was also accompanied by a CME (speed unknown as yet, since no LASCO images are
currently availbale), which may further boost geomagnetic activity in the
evening of Nov 11.
We also expect further strong flaring activity from Catania sunspot group 61
(NOAA 0696) for the next three days. After that, the region will rotate over the
west limb.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 9 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 095
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 127
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 133
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 104
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
08 1543 1549 1552 N08W35 M2.3 1N 56 V/2 0696
09 1659 1719 1732 N07W51 M8.9 2N 1000 IV/3,III/2,II/3 61 0696
Accompanied by full halo CME
10 0159 0213 0220 N09W49 X2.5 3B 650 IV/1,II/3,III/3 61 0696
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