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[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Mar 30 16:

To: propagation@contesting.com
Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Mar 30 16:10 UTC
From: nw7us@sunspotwatch.com
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Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2015 16:10:15 +0000
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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Mar 30 0340 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 March 2015

Solar activity was low throughout the period. Region 2305 (S08, L=009 class/area Eki/410 on 27 Mar) produced the largest event of the period, a C8/1n at 25/0446 UTC as well as several low-level C-class flares during the week. Regions 2303 (N19, L=067 class/area Hsx/120 on 21 Mar), 2309 (N15, L=072 class/area Dao/080 on 28 Mar), 2310 (N05, L=358 class/area Cao/020 on 23 Mar) and 2312 (N08, L=348 class/area Cao/030 on 25 Mar) also produced C-class events during the period. A large eruptive prominence on the northeastern limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off from approximately 27/1039 UTC to 27/1539 UTC but was determined not to be geoeffective. An approximately five degree long filament, centered near S23E50, was observed in Gong H-alpha imagery lifting off the solar disk from 28/1543 UTC to 28/1610 UTC but the CME was directed well off the Sun-Earth line.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 23 Mar to 28 Mar. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 29 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to minor storm levels on 23 Mar due to elevated solar wind velocities and a slightly extended period of negative Bz. Quiet to active levels were observed on 24-25 Mar due to influence from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to unsettled conditions were dominant from 26-28 Mar. Quiet to active levels returned on 29 Mar due to a prolonged period of negative Bz.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 March - 25 April 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels from 30-31 Mar. Moderate levels are likely from 01-14 Apr with the return of Regions 2302 (N12, L=189) and 2297 (S17, L=196). Predominately low levels are expected from 15 April through the end of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with the exception of 31 Mar - 01 Apr, 03-06 Apr, and 14-18 Apr due to effects from recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 30-31 Mar due to effects from a southern polar CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 01 Apr as HSS effects subside. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected from 02-04 Apr with active conditions likely on 03 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 05-11 Apr. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to return from 12-20 Apr due to effects from a negative CH HSS followed by a positive CH HSS with minor storms likely on 13-16 Apr and 18-19 Apr. Mostly quiet levels are expected from 21-24 Apr. Unsettled to active conditions are expected with minor storms possible on 25 Apr due to CH HSS effects.

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Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Mar 30 16:10 UTC

Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com

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