[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Mar 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Mar 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with C-flare activity from both Regions 2303 (N18, L=065) and 2305 (S10W58, Dho/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C4 at 30/2205 from Region 2303 just beyond the NW limb. Slight decay was observed in the leading spots of Region 2315 (S20W36, Dro/beta) and the trailing spots in Region 2305. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare for day one (31 Mar). An increased chance for M-class activity is expected by days two and three (01-02 Apr) as old Regions 2302 (N12, L=189) and 2297 (S17, L=196) are expected to return.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (31 Mar -02 Apr) The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft for the majority of the period was in the mid-300 km/s range but increased to near 400 km/s after 0730 UTC. Phi was negative. Bz was at or above -4 nT and Bt was less than 7 nT through 0730 UTC when it increased to near 16 nT. The increase in activity is likely due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Forecast: Continued enhancement of solar wind parameters is anticipated on day one (31 Mar) and remain enhanced through day three (02 Apr) as the CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected to dominate through day three (02 Apr) due to CH HSS effects. trans-equatorial high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

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