[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 06 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary:

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2339 (N12E63, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive X2 (R3-Strong) flare at 05/2211 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (est. shock speed 1163 km/s) and 590 sfu Tenflare. In conjunction with the X-flare, a filament in the northeast and a portion of a filament in the southwest erupted. A CME was subsequently observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery erupting from the northeast at 05/2224 UTC. Another, weaker CME can be seen in the southwest. Neither are expected to be geoeffective.

Region 2339 also produced an M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 05/1353 with an associated Type II radio sweep at 05/1351 UTC (est. shock speed 1110 km/s) and another M1 flare (R1 Minor) at 06/1149 UTC.

Region 2335 (S16E11, Ekc/beta-gamma) also produced two M-Class flares flares, an M1/Sf (R1-Minor) at 05/1425 UTC and an M2/2n (R1 Minor) at 05/1724 UTC, respectively.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight, yet increasing chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) flare , over the next three days (06-08 May). Regions 2235 and 2239 are the likely sources of increased flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (06-08 May) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment at ACE was quiescent (speed 350-400 km/s, neutral Bz, Bz near 6 nT) until the arrival of an interplanetary (IP) shock at 06/0053 UTC. Following the shock arrival, wind speed climbed to 450-500 km/s. Bt rose to 19 nT an Bz dipped as low as -10 nT. Density also rose and Phi shifted from positive to a more negative inclination after 06/0500 UTC. Forecast: Disturbed solar wind conditions are expected to persist at the ACE spacecraft through 07 May as the CME passage is combined with the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. A return to quiescent levels is expected on 08 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A sudden impulse was recorded at mid and high-latitude magnetometer stations at 06/0143 UTC, with a 31 nT deviation observed at Boulder.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through 07 May in response to the CME passage and high speed stream described above. Mostly quiet conditions return on 08 May.

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