[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar Activity was at moderate levels. Region 2371 (N12E33, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration, M3/1n flare at 18/1736 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and Tenflare (2300 sfu). The region grew and increased magnetic complexity. An asymetric, full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1724 UTC. Analysis and a WSA-Enlil model run indicate a likely glancing blow at Earth late on 21 Jun/early 22 Jun. Another partial-halo CME associated with a filament eruption in the SSE quadrant was first observed near 19/0845 UTC, however, not enough coronagraph images were available to conduct an analysis at this time to determine potential and geoeffectiveness of an Earth-directed component.

Region 2367 (S20W28, Eki/beta-gamma) underwent some decay as it lost penumbral area in its trailer spots. Despite the decay, the leader spot became more linearly stretched, indicative of some increased magnetic shear within the leader polarity. The region produced multiple C-class and optical subflares. Region 2369 (N06W18, Bxo/beta) underwent decay and nearly lost its bipolar spot configuration.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with M-class flare activity likely for days one-three (19-21 Jun) due to the flare potential from Regions 2371 and 2367.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 1,198 pfu at 18/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels at 18/1135 UTC. This increase was associated with the M1 flare from Region 2365. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached a maximum flux of 16 pfu at 18/1445 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels for days one-three (19-21 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold through day one (19 Jun). Days two and three (20-21 Jun) are expected to see moderate to background levels as the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continues to decrease.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at near ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds generally averaged between 400-450 km/s and steadied out near 425 km/s at periods end. Total magnetic field strength was slightly variable and averaged between 3-6 nT. The Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deviation of -4 nT at 18/1136 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at near ambient conditions on days one and two (19-20 Jun). A glancing blow from a CME that erupted on 18 June is expected to cause disruptions in the solar wind environment late on day three (21 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under the near ambient solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled conditions on days one through three (19-21 Jun). A glancing blow from a CME that erupted on 18 June is expected to cause disruptions in the geomagnetic field late on day three (21 Jun).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation