[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2371 (N13W58, Fkc/beta-gamma), only produced low level C-class activity, with a C1/SF at 26/0606 UTC being the largest in the past 24 hours. The region exhibited little change as it rotated further towards the limb. No other significant events or Earth-directed CMEs were noted during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on days one through three (26-28 Jun), with a slight chance for R3 or greater activity all three days due to the flare potential of Region 2371.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was at high levels with a peak of 4,180 pfu at 25/1215 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at GOES-13 reached S1 levels at 26/0230 UTC, enhanced by the M7/3B flare and associated CME on 25 Jun.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely peak at high levels on days one and two (26-27 Jun). Upon the arrival of the latest CME, expected mid to late on day two, the electron flux will likely decrease as particles are redistributed away from the GOES sensors. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to persist above S1 as the CME moves towards Earth. Peak enhancement is expected when the main portion of the CME reaches Earth then transitioning into a pronounced decline shortly shortly after.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period under waning influence of the CME from 22 Jun. Solar wind velocities began the period at near 600 km/s, slowly trending down into the mid 500 km/s range by the end of the period. Bt began the period near 8 nT, decreasing to below 5 nT after 26/1340 UTC and remaining below throughout the day. Phi was predominantly negative (towards) with a transition to positive (away) noted late in the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected reflect mostly nominal with slightly elevated wind speeds on day one (26 Jun) and through half of day two (27 Jun). Upon the expected arrival of the 25 Jun CME, mid to late on day two (27 Jun), solar wind velocities are anticipated to increase to over 700 km/s with an increase in total field to near 20 nT or more. The duration of CME effects are anticipated to persist through the end of the end of day three (28 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field activity began the period at G1 (Minor) conditions under the effects of the 22 Jun CME. As the CME moved past Earth, solar wind conditions decreased in intensity, allowing the magnetosphere to decrease below G1 (Minor) thresholds, tapering into active conditions before settling into mostly quiet conditions by the end of the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is forecast to be quiet to unsettled on day one (26 Jun). Day two (27 Jun) is forecast to begin with quiet to unsettled conditions before the anticipated arrival of the 25 Jun CME. Mid to late on day two, an increase in activity to as high as G2 (Moderate) storm levels may follow the CME arrival and persist into day three (28 Jun).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation