[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2390 (S15W19, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of consolidation in its leader spots while continuing to decay in its intermediate spots. This region remained predominantly stable as only a couple of weak, B-class flares were observed during the period. Region 2389 (S12E16, Dro/beta) remained fairly stable throughout the period. Region 2391 (N05E62, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and unchanged as it continued its transit onto the visible disc.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (28-30 Jul) primarily due to the flare potential of Region 2390.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 225 pfu observed at 27/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (28-30 Jul) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary:

Solar wind parameters remained fairly consistent, yet slightly disturbed during the period. Solar wind speeds averaged near 480 km/s with isolated peaks in excess of 500 km/s. The IMF total field strength varied slightly between 2 - 6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5 nT. Temperature and density remained steady, with the Phi angle remaining in a mostly positive (away) orientation, occasionally oscillating into a negative (towards) position.

Forecast: Solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced through the remainder of day one (28 Jul) ahead of the anticipated onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Day two (29 Jul) an increase in solar wind velocity is expected as the CH HSS moves into a more geoeffective position. Day three (30 Jul) should bring a slight decrease in solar wind velocity and a return to more ambient IMF conditions as the CH HSS effects begin to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, mainly due to slightly elevated solar wind velocities and brief periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of day one (28 Jul). Day two (29 Jul) is expected to see an increase to quiet to active conditions due to the onset of the anticipated positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (30 Jul) as the CH HSS begins to rotate out of a favorable, Earth-connected position.

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