[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2390 (S15W32, Dai/beta) continued to exhibit signs of decay in both the intermediate and the trailer spots. Region 2389 (S11W01, Cso/beta) dissipated further and was inactive. Region 2391 (N07E49, Hsx/alpha), as well as the other two numbered spot groups, remained stable and inactive.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (29-31 Jul) primarily due to the flare potential of Region 2390.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 424 pfu observed at 28/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (29-31 Jul) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary:

Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds began the period near 450 km/s, exhibited a predominantly decreasing trend, and ended the period just over 400 km/s. The IMF total field strength ranged between 1 - 5 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/- 4 nT, and the Phi angle remained mostly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue the downward trend through the remainder of day one (29 Jul) and into day two (30 Jul). By day three (31 Jul), a slight increase in the solar wind is expected out ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period from 29/1200-1500 UTC, mainly due to residual CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of day one (29 Jul), although a brief period of active conditions remains possible due to lingering effects from the positive polarity CH HSS. Day two (30 Jul) should see the field remain fairly stable as it returns to an ambient background state. Later on day three (31 July), conditions should begin to increase to unsettled to active levels with the anticipated approach of the negative polarity CH HSS.

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