[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Aug 17 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Aug 17 0313 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 August 2015

Solar activity was at very low to low levels this period. Region 2396 (S17, L=038, Ekc/840; 09 Aug) and Region 2401 (S11, L=270, Dai/070; 16 Aug) produced weak C-class flares on 11 Aug, 14 Aug, and 15 Aug. Solar activity was very low for all other days.

On 12 Aug, a 13 degree long filament centered near S29W29 produced a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) signature visible on SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. This CME was determined to be Earth-directed. On 14 Aug, two filaments disappeared. The first was 16 degrees long centered near S12W41 and the second was a 17 degree long filament centered near S39W30. Both filaments produced CMEs observed off the SW limb observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Model output suggests the possibility of a glancing blow as they pass Earth on 18 Aug.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 10 - 12 Aug, then decreased to moderate levels on 13 - 15 Aug, before returning to high levels on 16 Aug. A peak flux of 4100 was observed on 11 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 10 - 14 Aug, with an isolated period of active conditions early on 13 Aug. On 15 Aug, activity reached G3 (strong) levels with the arrival of the 12 Aug CME. A shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft on 15/0745 UTC with a subsequent sudden impulse of 36 nT at NGK at 15/0908 UTC. G2 (moderate) and G1 (minor) conditions were observed through 16 Aug as the CME effects transitioned into a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 August - 12 September 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the outlook period with a chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels through period. Moderate levels are expected from 17-23 Aug , 27-29 Aug, 02-05 Sep, and 09-11 Sep. High levels are expected from 25-26 Aug, 30 Aug - 01 Sep, 06-08 Sep, and 12 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Aug due to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Active levels are expected on 23 Aug, 27 Aug, and 02-04 Sep from the influence of recurrent CH HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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