[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2410 (S19W05, Axx/alpha) produced the largest event of the period with a B3 flare at 05/0215 UTC. Other activity included a B2 flare observed at 05/1010 UTC from Region 2409 (N06W02, Bxo/beta). Both of these regions, along with Region 2411 (N13E50, Hsx/alpha), exhibited little change throughout the period.

A filament eruption, centered near S17E10 and estimated to be 15 degrees in extent, was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 04/1709-1854 UTC. Analysis of limited coronagraph imagery observed a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) off the south limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 04/1948 UTC. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests a possible glancing blow impact at Earth on 08 Sep. However, additional analysis will be accomplished as more imagery becomes available. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (05-07 Sep).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 372 pfu observed at 04/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels this period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (05-06 Sep) as geomagnetic field activity subsides. Increased geomagnetic field activity on day three (07 Sep) is expected to cause electron redistribution and flux levels are expected to decrease to normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (05-07 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were steady at around 450 km/s until 04/1300 UTC when speeds slowly increased to around 500 km/s. IMF total field strength values varied between 5-13 nT and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT early in the period. The phi angle was mostly steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a slow return to near-background levels mid-to-late on day one (05 Sep) as CH HSS influence subsides. Ambient solar wind values are expected on day two (06 Sep) under a nominal solar wind environment. The onset of a pair of positive polarity CH HSSs on day three (07 Sep) is expected to increase solar wind speeds to around 500 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels CH HSS influence weakened. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one and throughout day two (06 Sep) as CH HSS influence weakens. Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels on day three (07 Sep) due to the onset of a pair of positive polarity CH HSSs.

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