[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. New Region 2415 (S19E71, Dao/beta) produced a B4 flare at 11/0245 UTC. Region 2414 (S10W14, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited rapid growth during the period with penumbral leader and trailer development along with displaying mixed magnetic polarities within the intermediate spots. The remaining two spotted regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: There is a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (11-13 Sep) due to the rapid development of Region 2414 and the emergence of Region 2415 on the SE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels this period, reaching a peak value of 3,170 pfu observed at 10/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels midday on day one (11 Sep) before decreasing to normal levels late on day one through days two and three (12-13 Sep) due to the onset of enhanced geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (11-13 Sep).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced through about 11/0639 UTC when wind parameters indicated the onset of the positive polarity, equatorial coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) Solar wind speeds varied between 370-453 km/s but indicated a steady increase after about 11/0645 UTC to end the period near 650 km/s. IMF total field values peaked at near 19 nT at 11/0730 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -16 nT at about the same time. The phi angle began the period in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation but rotated to a mostly positive (away from the Sun) orientation after 10/1900 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced for the remainder of day one (11 Sep) through early day three (11-13 Sep) due to the positive polarity CH HSS influence in addition to the possible arrival of the 07 Sep CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm (G3-Strong) levels due to effects from the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active levels were predominate through about 11/0847 UTC when field levels rapidly increased to severe storm conditions. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels for the remainder of day one (11 Sep) and early on day two (12 Sep) due to positive polarity CH HSS influence in addition to the possible arrival of the 07 Sep CME. Quiet to active levels are likely on day three (13 Sep) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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