[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Sep 16 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Sep 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low with most of the activity being produced by Region 2415 (S22E08, Dai/beta-gamma). Region 2415 exhibited growth and consolidation in its intermediate spots and also produced the largest flare of the period, a C3/Sf flare at 16/0224 UTC. Region 2414 (S09W88,Dso/beta) produced one C-class flare as it makes it transit around the west limb. Region 2419 (N12E35, Cso/beta) showed growth in overall area and spots, but remained inactive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: C-class flares are likely for days one through three (16-18 Sep) due the flare potential of Region 2415.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (16-18 Sep) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) conditions. Solar wind speeds averaged between 450 km/s and 470 km/s over the period while the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions remained at a nominal state. Bt was steady in the 4-6 nT range while Bz indicated more variability with a maximum southward extent of -4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away from the Sun) orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (16 Sep) due to the (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds are likely to begin to wane on days two and three (17-18 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Predominantly unsettled conditions with the possibility of an isolated active period are anticipated for the remainder of day one (16 Sep) due to continued influence of the current positive polarity CH HSS. By day two (17 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels are expected as CH HSS effects begin to wane. Day three (18 Sep) should see mostly ambient background conditions.

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