[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 01 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2422 (S17W62, Fkc/beta -gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare, the largest of the period, at 30/1320 UTC. This region was also responsible for multiple C-class flares and several sub-faint optical flares throughout the period. It continued to decrease in total area, lost some of its leader spots, yet retained its delta magnetic signature. Region 2427 (N17E03, Dsi/beta) exhibited consolidation in its intermediate spots and slight decay in the trailer spot area. Region 2420 (N10W70, Hsx/alpha) continued its slow decay as it approached the west limb.

Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery as part of an overarching set of coronal disruptions from the vicinity of Region 2420 and stretching southward towards Region 2422, and towards the western limb. Analysis of coronagraph imagery suggests a possible Earth-directed component from at least one of the CMEs, and at least a glancing blow from the others.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity likely, and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on days one and two (01-02 Oct) due primarily to the greater flare probability from Region 2422. By day three (03 Oct), chances of R3-Strong flare activity begins to decrease as Region 2422 continues to decay and transit the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was primarily at normal levels, with a brief period of moderate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced, but remained below the S1-minor storm levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on all three days (01-03 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, with a chance of reaching 10 pfu or greater levels (S1, Minor or greater) all three days due to the increasingly geoeffective positioning of Region 2422.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected ambient background conditions for most of the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from near 320 km/s to just below 300 km/s by midday. The IMF total field strength was fairly steady between 3 nT and 5 nT for the majority of the period, with the Bz component fluctuating between +/- 3 nT. Phi was variable throughout the period, oscillating between positive and negative orientations throughout most of the period. Shortly after 01/1000 UTC, total field began to increase to near 10 nT, Bz saw a southward deflection to near -10 nT, and solar winds increased to near 325 km/s. Phi angle remained in a mostly negative orientation through the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters could see a slight enhancement on day one (01 Oct) as a weak, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moves closer to the Earth. Recurrence suggests a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) is likely and would disturb the IMF with increased total magnetic field strength and increase in solar wind speed. Day two (02 Oct) is expected to see a further enhancement of the IMF due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), and the possible arrival of one of the CMEs from 30 Sep. Disturbed and enhanced conditions are likely to continue into day three (03 Oct) due to continued CH HSS effects and the arrival of additional CMEs from 30 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels early on day one (01 Oct), with unsettled to active levels by the end of the UT day, due to a slightly enhanced space environment and the possible SSBC event. Day two (02 Oct) is expected to experience quiet to active conditions, with a likely period of minor storming (G1, Minor) due to CIR and CH HSS effects, as well as the possible arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Active conditions are expected to continue into day three (03 Oct), with a likely period of minor (G1) storming again late in the day due to geomagnetic response to the CME events of 30 Sep, should they arrive late on day three.

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