[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Oct 12 16:10 UTC

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Oct 12 0140 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 October 2015

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout much of the period (05-10 Oct) with only B-class flare activity observed. Solar activity increased to low levels on 11 Oct due to a long-duration C3 flare at 11/2229 UTC from an unnumbered region behind the southeastern limb. The seven numbered active regions on the visible disk throughout the week were generally stable, simple, and unproductive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels on 09, 11 Oct with high levels observed on 05-06, 08, and 10 Oct, all due to an enhanced solar wind environment and increased geomagnetic activity caused by a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Moderate flux levels were observed on 07 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 05 Oct and quiet to active levels on 06 Oct due to brief periods of southward Bz in addition to isolated periods of substorming. The influence of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS caused active to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on 07 Oct, active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 08 Oct, and unsettled to active conditions on 09 Oct. Quiet to active field conditions were observed on 10-11 Oct due to waning CH HSS effects, an enhanced solar wind environment, and localized substorming.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 October - 07 November 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the period with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) for 16-29 Oct due to the return of Region 2422 (S20, L=102) which produced a total of 18 M-class flares last rotation.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high levels on 12-15, 18-24 Oct, and 01-02, 04-07 Nov. Moderate flux levels are expected on 16-17, 25, and 27-28 Oct with normal levels expected on 26, 29-31 Oct, and 03 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 12, 15-16 Oct, and 03 Nov due to the influence of multiple recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). Active levels are anticipated on 13-14, 17, 29 Oct, and 04-05 Nov. Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected for the remainder of the period.

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