[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a long duration C3 flare at 11/2229 UTC from beyond the east limb near S10. Both Regions 2430 (S17E12, Hrx/alpha) and 2431 (S18E54, Hax/alpha) were unchanged during the period. New Regions 2432 (S23E43, Cro/beta) and 2433 (N19W48, Cro/beta) emerged on the disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on day one (12 Oct) followed by an increase to a chance for C-flares on days two and three (13-14 Oct) due to the return of old Region 2423 (S09, L=152) on or about 12 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a peak flux of 60,051 pfu observed at 11/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remain at high to very high levels on day one (12 Oct) due to coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. A decrease to moderate levels is possible beginning late on day two (13 Oct) and through three (14 Oct) as Earth transitions to the positive polarity, northern extension CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds continued to exhibit a slow decline through the majority of the period from a high of about 490 km/s to average near 440 km/s. After about 12/0930, solar wind speeds and temperature began to increase once again, indicating the onset of the northern polar extension CH. Total field (Bt) increased slowly from 2 nT to 7 nT. The Bz component was variable for the majority of the period but remained largely negative at around -7 nT after approximately 12/0900 UTC. Phi angle was in a mostly positive (away) orientation with brief variations to a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected continue to increase as well as a possible further increase in total field intensity through late on day one (12 Oct) and remain enhanced through days two and three (13-14 Oct) due to a transition into a positive polarity, northern extension CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the majority of the past 24 hours, but increased to (G1) minor storm levels during the last reporting period due to the transition to the northern polar extension CH.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor (G1) storm levels for the remainder of day one (12 Oct) as Earth transitions into a positive polarity, northern extension CH HSS. Quiet to active levels are expected on days two and three (13-14 Oct) as coronal hole activity persists.

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