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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels. Region 2434 (S11E41, Dao/beta-gamma) produced two M1/Sf flares, the first at 15/2331 UTC and the second at 16/0616 UTC. The first flare was embedded in a C4 flare from a region behind the NE limb. Both M-class flares seem to be impulsive with no associated coronal mass ejections noted in available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Region 2434 saw slight penumbral growth in the leader and trailer spot while some umbra decay near the trailer portion. Region 2432 (S22W16, Bxo/beta) exhibited consolidation and minor decay in the leader spot. Region 2431 (S18W1, Hsx/alpha) was stable and inactive.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (16-18 Oct). Region 2434 is the most likely contributor of event level flares currently on the disk. Activity from a region rotating around the eastern limb may further increase the chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,141 pfu observed at 15/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from moderate to high levels through the forecast period (16-18 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested further distance from the positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed gradually trended lower from around 450 km/s to 400 km/s. Density was higher than in previous days, further suggesting the departure from the high speed stream. Total magnetic field strength slowly varied between 3 nT and 7 nT while the Bz component was mostly negative with a positive trend beginning after 16/0800 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards) with brief variations of positive (away) until after 16/0800 UTC, when Phi moved into a predominantly positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters should begin to see influence from a trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole on day one and two (16 - 17 Oct). This is expected to increase solar wind speeds while decreasing density. By day three (18 Oct), the nominal conditions are expected to return as the high speed stream moves further ahead of Earths orbit.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels possible on day one (16 Oct) due to CH HSS effects. A decrease to mostly unsettled to active levels are expected on day two (17 Oct) and continued decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled on day three (18 Oct) as coronal hole effects diminish.

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