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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels early in the period. A pair of M1 (R1-Minor Radio Blackout) flares were observed in quick succession (17/2023 UTC, 17/2042 UTC) from an unnumbered region on or just behind the southeast limb. Spots near the source location of the M-class flares began to rotate into view late in the period but foreshortening effects made analysis of this region impossible.

Penumbral decay and consolidation were observed in Region 2434 (S10E13, Dki/beta-gamma) and only produced low to mid-level C-class flare activity this period. Region 2436 (N09E63, Dao/beta-gamma) grew in both areal extent and spot count this period but was unproductive this period. The remaining three active regions on the disk were relatively stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) flares over the next three days (18-20 Oct) due to the flare potential on the eastern hemisphere.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux value of 1,070 pfu observed at 17/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (18 Oct) due to enhanced geomagnetic field activity. Moderate to high levels are expected on days two and three (19-20 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind regime early in the period but became enhanced after 18/0000 UTC, likely due to a solar sector boundary crossing. Solar wind speeds slowly increased from initial values near 350 km/s to end-of-period values near 430 km/s. IMF total field values reached a peak of 12 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -11 late in the period. The phi angle was variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhance on day one (18 Oct) with a return to near-background levels expected on days two and three (19-20 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels until 18/0900-1200 UTC when planetary G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed. High latitude ground stations observed localized strong (Kp=7) and severe (Kp=8) geomagnetic storm conditions during the 18/0900-1200 UTC synoptic period. The disturbance was attributed to a solar sector boundary change followed by prolonged southward Bz. Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected until 18/1300 UTC followed by unsettled to active levels for the remainder of day one (18 Oct). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (19 Oct) with quiet conditions expected on day three (20 Oct) under a nominal solar wind regime.

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