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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity persisted at low levels. Region 2436 (N10W54, Esi/beta) produced the only C-class flare of the period, a C1 flare at 27/0514 UTC. This region remained the largest region on the disk, but continued to exhibit decay in its intermediate and trailer spots. Region 2440 (N19W09, Dao/beta) continued to exhibit growth in its intermediate and leader spots, but remained mostly inactive. Brightening just beyond the east limb aided in bringing background flux levels to near the C1 level.

Analysis of the coronal mass ejection (CME) that was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 26/1112 UTC, indicated there is a possibility of a glancing blow to Earth sometime late in the day on 30 Oct to early on 31 Oct. Impacts from this CME will be discussed in future forecasts as the arrival time falls outside this forecast period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low over the next three days (27-29 Oct) with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) primarily due to the flare potential of Region 2436, Region 2440, and the active region just beyond the east limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (27-29 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to decrease towards ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds declined from near 470 km/s to near 375 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained consistent between 4 - 6 nT throughout the period, while Bz varied between -3 nT and 4 nT. Phi remained in the positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near ambient levels throughout next two days (27-28 Oct). On day three (29 Oct), an enhancement in total magnetic field (Bt) and periodic shifts in the phi angle are expected as a result of a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (27 Oct) with quiet to unsettled conditions expected on day two (28 Oct). Day three (29 Oct) is likely to see active conditions as an anticipated SSBC begins to influence Earths magnetosphere.

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