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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 02 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2443 (N07E23, Fkc/beta-gamma) produced several low and mid-level C-class flares. Although the region remained the largest and most complex on the visible disk, it lost its delta magnetic configuration as it continued to expand lengthwise. Region 2445 (N15W48, Dai/beta) was numbered today and produced several C-class flares, including the largest flare of the period, a C7/Sf at 02/1000 UTC.
A CME first visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 01/2336 UTC erupted off of the southeast limb. Though early indications suggest the event is far-sided, further analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling are underway to determine whether or not the ejecta has an Earthward component.
Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) for the next three days (02-04 Nov) from Region 2443.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for day one (02 Nov) with high levels likely on days two and three (03-04 Nov) in response to elevated solar wind speeds from the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days (02-04 Nov).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 7 nT. Bz oscillated through the period, with a maximum southward deviation as low as -5 nT. Wind speeds averaged in the 330-370 km/s range. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) but transitioned into the positive (away) sector at approximately 01/1920 UTC.
Forecast: A recurrent, trans-equatorial CH is anticipated to become geoeffective midday to late on day one (02 Nov) with effects lasting into day three (04 Nov). Solar wind speeds reached 800 km/s last rotation (06-08 Oct) and measured 800-1000 km/s on STEREO-A instruments on 20 Oct, so indications are that it has maintained its strength and the Earth will experience similar speeds during this rotation.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast: A recurrent, trans-equatorial CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective midday to late on day one (02 Nov) with effects lasting into day three (04 Nov). Severe (G3-Strong on NOAA Scales)
geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 Nov with minor to major (G1-G2/Minor-Moderate) storms likely to continue into 03 Nov as CH HSS effects persist. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 04 Nov as HSS effects begin to subside.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2015 Nov 02 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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