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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Nov 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a sole, C1 flare from Region 2454 (N07E07, Dro/beta) at 17/1554 UTC. The region changed little over the period and remained in a simple bipolar configuration. Region 2455 (N15W12) decayed into plage. All other numbered regions were spotless and inactive. An active region beyond the NE limb at approximately N15, appeared to be the source of a few B-class flares as observed in GOES-15 SXI imagery.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (18-20 Nov), primarily due to the flare probabilities of Region 2454 and the active region just beyond the NE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (18-19 Nov) in response to the onset of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). On day three (20 Nov), flux may reach high levels as active to G1 (Minor) storming conditions give way to quiet to unsettled levels, allowing relativistic electrons to congregate in geostationary orbit. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of mostly ambient conditions. Solar wind velocity was primarily between 350-380 km/s. The total magnetic field strength (Bt) ranged mainly from 3 to 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was predominantly in an anti-parallel orientation, with a few periods of northward oscillations. The phi angle was positive (away from Sun) until 17/1941 UTC, when it rotated into a negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to begin increasing mid-way into day one (18 Nov), in response to a CIR and subsequent CH HSS. Later in the day, a glancing blow from the CME events of 15-16 Nov is anticipated; which is expected to lead to further enhancements in the IMF. Day two (19 Nov) will likely begin with enhanced conditions, but as the day progresses, total magnetic field strength and solar wind speeds are expected to decline as the transient and CH HSS move past Earth. The trend towards ambient conditions is expected to continue on day three (20 Nov).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The unsettled periods were likely due to sustained periods of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to become disturbed to active levels midway into day one (18 Nov) in response to effects from the CIR, and subsequent CH HSS. Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach minor (G1-Minor) storming levels, with a chance for major (G2-Moderate) storm periods, later in the day due to CME effects. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely to continue into the initial period of day two (19 Nov), before beginning a decrease to active and lower levels as CME and CH HSS effects begin decreasing. Day three (20 Nov), is expected to experience unsettled to quiet periods as transient and CH HSS effects continue to wane.

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