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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Dec 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2473 (S17W53, Eai/beta) produced a C4/1f flare at 30/2245 UTC, the strongest of the period. The region exhibited separation around its leader spot with minor dissipation observed in the intermediate and trailer spots. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) on day one and two (31 Dec - 01 Jan), decreasing to a slight chance on day three (02 Jan) as Region 2473 continues to decay.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak value of 1,660 pfu observed at 30/1445 UTC before a redistribution of electrons from the onset of the 28 Dec CME caused the flux to drop to normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (31 Dec-02 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1-Minor thresholds for the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, indicated the arrival of the 28 Dec coronal ejection. A minor shock was observed at 31/0003 UTC, with total magnetic field strength increasing from around 5 nT to 13 nT. The Bz component of the field was frequently oscillating between positive and negative, suggesting transition through the sheath of the CME. Wind speeds increased from around 350 km/s to a peak near 500 km/s before trending back down around 450 km/s by the periods end. Phi remained predominately in the positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Day one (31 Dec) is expected to see continued influence of the CME. Enhancements to the total magnetic field strength (Bt) and solar wind speeds are likely to persist into day two (01 Jan), with waning conditions met by the onset of an anticipated coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS are expected to continue through day three (02 Jan).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to the onset of the 28 Dec CME.

Forecast: Day one (31 Dec) is expected to see active conditions with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming under the influence of the 28 Dec CME. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on day two with the onset of the anticipated CH HSS becoming geoeffective. On day three (02 Jan), a return to mostly unsettled to active conditions is forecast as solar wind enhancements wane.

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