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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. Region 2473 (S20W84, Cao/beta) produced a long-duration M2 flare (R1-Minor Radio Blackout) with type II and IV radio emissions at 02/0011 UTC which was the largest event of the period. Region 2473 was in decay as it approached the west limb. Region 2476 (S10E53, Cro/beta) exhibited minor spot growth late in the period while Region 2477 (N12E68, Hsx/alpha) was stable.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the M2 flare from Region 2473 was first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 02/2324 UTC. The bulk of the ejecta appeared to be directed south and west of the Sun-Earth line although an Earth-directed component cannot be ruled out until event analysis can be completed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on day one (02 Jan). Once Region 2473 rotates behind the west limb early on day two (03 Jan) solar activity is expected to decrease to very low levels through day three (04 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,120 pfu observed at 02/1115 UTC.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced following the long-duration M2 flare from Region 2473 at 02/0011 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold at 02/0430 UTC, reached a peak flux of 21 pfu at 02/0450 UTC, and decreased below event thresholds at 02/0750 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one (02 Jan) with normal to moderate levels expected on days two and three (03-04 Jan).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux expected to remain below the S1 event threshold for the remainder of day one (02 Jan) and slowly return to background levels over days two and three (03-04 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds slowly increased from initial values near 410 km/s to end-of-period values near 500 km/s. IMF total field strength values varied between 1-9 nT and Bz hovered around 0 nT throughout the period. The phi angle was steady in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation for most of the period with some variability observed after 02/1030 UTC. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on day one (02 Jan) due to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The solar wind enhancement is expected to persist throughout the forecast period (02-04 Jan) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels over the next three days (02-04 Jan) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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