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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only B-class flare activity was observed. Region 2478 (N07E32, Bxo/beta) and newly-numbered Region 2480 (N11E12, Bxo/beta) exhibited minor development mid-period but began to decay shortly thereafter. Region 2476 (S09E27, Cao/beta) exhibited minor decay throughout the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (04-06 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,780 pfu observed at 03/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (04-05 Jan). A decrease to normal to moderate flux values is likely on day three (06 Jan) due to an anticipated enhanced solar wind environment associated with a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds began the period between 460-500 km/s before decreasing to around 420 km/s mid-period. Speeds slowly increased again to around 450 km/s at around 04/0530 UTC where they remained for the rest of the period. IMF total field strength values (Bt) varied between 1-7 nT and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. The phi angle was mostly steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation throughout the period with brief periods of variability.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on days one and two (04-05 Jan) under a nominal solar wind regime. A solar wind enhancement is expected on day three (06 Jan) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds in excess of 650 km/s were observed from this HSS last rotation.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04-05 Jan) due to a nominal solar wind environment. The anticipated onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS on day three (06 Jan) is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions.

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