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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-class flares observed this period. Region 2483 (N17E11, Dao/beta) exhibited minor growth throughout the period and new Region 2484 (N05E42, Axx/alpha) was numbered. The remaining active regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (11-13 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,770 pfu observed at 10/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and three (11, 13 Jan) with normal to moderate levels expected on day two (12 Jan) due to enhanced geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (11-13 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds were between 420-450 km/s for most of the period, then increased to near 490 km/s by periods end. IMF total field strength values varied between 1-8 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT mid-period. The phi angle was in a positive (away) solar sector orientation until near 11/0500 UTC when a solar sector boundary crossing occurred and the phi angle switched to a negative (toward) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day one (11 Jan) through midday day two (12 Jan). The anticipated onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) mid-to-late on day two (12 Jan) is expected to cause a minor solar wind enhancement through early on day three (13 Jan). Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease to near-background levels by the end of day three as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet on day one and into early day two (11-12 Jan). The onset of a CIR followed by a negative polarity CH HSS mid-to-late on day two (12 Jan) is expected to cause unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely. Unsettled to active field activity is expected on day three (13 Jan) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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