[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2480 (N04W58, Hsx/alpha) produced most of the flare activity, the largest a C1 flare observed at 15/1525 UTC. Both Region 2483 (N17W55, Hsx/alpha) and Region 2485 (N13E40, Dro/beta) were relatively quiet during the period.

Delayed imagery revealed a 14 degree filament eruption that occurred yesterday near S30W03. An associated CME was visible in SOHO LASCO imagery beginning at 14/2324 UTC. A model run was conducted and determined that there is a chance for a glancing blow early on 19 Jan.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (16-18 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak observed flux of 2,580 pfu at approximately 15/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one through three (16-18 Jan) due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (16-18 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected weakening CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was steady around 4-6 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was variable, observing a maximum southward deflection of -3 nT. Solar wind speeds slightly decreased through the period from near 410 km/s to 380 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decrease to ambient levels over the next three days (16-18 Jan) as CH HSS influence subsides. A slight enhancement is possible late on 18 Jan ahead of the weak glancing blow CME anticipated to arrive early on 19 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (16-18 Jan) with a chance for a late unsettled period on 18 Jan ahead of the weak glancing blow CME anticipated to arrive early on 19 Jan.

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