[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-class activity. Regions 2480 (N03W72, Hsx/alpha) and 2485 (N13E28, Cro/beta) were the activity producers during the period with a few low-level B-class flares. All three of the spotted regions on the visible disk were either stable or exhibited slight decay.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (17-19 Jan).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak observed flux of 4,800 pfu at approximately 16/1350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (17-18 Jan) due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and then fall to normal to moderate levels on 19 Jan as a weak transient moves through. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (17-19 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a return to ambient levels. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was between 5 nT and 7 nT throughout the period. The Bz component of the magnetic field was variable, observing a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased through the period from near 370 km/s to 320 km/s. Phi angle deviated from a positive (away) to a neutral oriental throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels through day two (18 Jan). A slight enhancement is possible late on 18 Jan ahead of the weak glancing blow CME anticipated to arrive early on 19 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the end of day two (18 Jan). There is a chance for a late unsettled period on 18 Jan ahead of the weak glancing blow CME anticipated to arrive early on 19 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (19 Jan) with active periods likely due to CME effects.

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