[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with only weak background flares observed this period. Region 2488 (N03E19, Dai/beta) exhibited consolidation in its leader spots while Region 2487 (S12E02, Cao/beta) exhibited minor decay in its leader spots. Region 2486 (S19W02, Hrx/alpha) remained stable. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (23-25 Jan).

Energetic Particles 24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,380 pfu observed at 22/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (23-25 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed averaged about 500 km/s through 23/0700 UTC when a gradual increase to near 600 km/s was observed. The period ended with wind speed at about 550 km/s. IMF total field strength values (Bt) ranged between 1-8 nT while the Bz component did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative (toward) solar sector orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease to near-background levels by late on day one (23 Jan) through late on day three (25 Jan) as the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS subsides. Late on day three (25 Jan), solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under continued CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the remainder of day one (23 Jan) as the influence of the southern pole-connected negative polarity CH HSS slowly subsides. Quiet field conditions are expected on day two (24 Jan). Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected on day three (25 Jan) as a northern, polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position late in the day.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation