[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 27 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels due to a C1 x-ray flare enhancement earlier in the period at 26/1715 UTC, related to a filament eruption southeast of inactive and stable Region 2487 (S12W54, Axx/alpha). The approximately 31 degree long filament centered near S32W22, erupted between 26/1652-1748 UTC. Analysis of SDO-AIA imagery indicated the majority of ejecta traveled southwestward and appeared well off the Sun-Earth line. Another, smaller area of filament material erupted more west-southwestward. Coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with the filament eruption, and were first clearly observed in SOHO/LASCO C-2 imagery at 26/1824 UTC. The more southwestward CME appeared to be directed well below Earths orbital plane. While analysis continues regarding the CME directed more west-southwestward to determine potential geoeffectiveness.

Region 2488 (N02W37, Dao/beta) changed little and was inactive. Region 2489 (N10E33, Dai/beta) underwent some additional growth at the center and trailer sections of the group. The region produced a B9 flare at 27/0537 UTC. Region 2490 (S19E47, Bxo/beta) was inactive and underwent decay as it lost the rudimentary penumbra in the trailer spots.

An initial WSA-Enlil run was submitted and we await the results to assist in determination of the likelihood of any Earth-directed component to the filament eruption associated CME.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels throughout the period (27-29 Jan), with a slight chance for M-class activity (R1-Minor) on day one (27 Jan) primarily due to the growth and slightly increased flare potential of Region 2489.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,117 pfu observed at 26/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels over the next three days (27-29 Jan) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (27-29 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became indicative of a weakly disturbed solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) environment. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 325-385 km/s during the period. Total IMF strength ranged mainly from 3 to 6 nT until about 27/0303 UTC when the strength became further elevated, reaching 9 nT by about 27/0840 UTC. The Bz component of the IMF stayed primarily northward and not well-connected to Earth. The phi angle was negative (towards the Sun) until about 27/0800 UTC, when it shifted to a positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced later on day one (27 Jan), and remain elevated into day two (28 Jan) with wind speeds in excess of 550 km/s, due to the onset of a positive polarity, northern pole-connected CH HSS. Conditions are expected to taper off late on day two and into day three (29 Jan) as the CH HSS rotates out of a geoeffective position and effects begin to subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on days one through three (27-29 Jan), with an isolated period of active levels expected later on day one (27 Jan)in response to the expected solar wind speed increase and disturbances in the geomagnetic field due to mainly to effects of the positive polarity CH HSS.

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