[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2488 (N04W60, Dao/beta-gamma) decreased in total area as its original trailer spots to the east dissipated; while the newer spots to the northeast of the leader changed little over the period. The region retained its mixed polarity magnetic field and continued to produce occasional C-class flares; the largest flares being a C9/1f at 28/1202 UTC and a C3/Sf at 29/0818 UTC.

Region 2489 (N10E05, Eko/beta) changed little in total areal coverage, but did spread further E-W. Despite the lengthening of the region, magnetic shear remained weak and the region was inactive over the period. Region 2490 (S18E19, Bxo/beta) underwent further dissipation, but did produce a B8 flare at 29/0338 UTC.

A nearly 15 degree long, linear filament centered near S42W46, disappeared between approximately 29/0800-0900 UTC as observed by ground-based solar observatories. Some of the filament may have been eruptive along a SW vector as observed in GONG/H-alpha and SDO/AIA imagery, but it is unclear how much plasma may have escaped the Sun. We await updated SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery to see if a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the filament eruption. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (29-31 Jan), primarily due to the instability and flare potential of Region 2488.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (29 Jan) with moderate to high levels expected on days two and three (30-31 Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (29-31 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions were indicative of a near nominal space environment. Total IMF strength ranged mainly from 4 to 7 nT. The Bz component was variable with no prolonged periods of southward IMF orientation. Solar wind speeds were between 350-370 km/s to start the period before slowly decreasing to speeds predominantly ranging from 300-325 km/s near the end of the period. The phi angle was positive (away from the Sun) through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at near nominal conditions the remainder of day one (29 Jan) on into day two (30 Jan). Conditions are expected to return to background levels on later on day two into day three (31 Jan) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet in response to the near ambient solar wind and IMF environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels the remainder of day one (29 Jan) on into day two (30 Jan). Quiet field activity is expected on day three (31 Jan) under a nominal solar wind regime.

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