[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jan 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jan 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2488 (N04W76, Cao/beta) produced an impulsive C1/Sf flare at 29/1641 UTC. The region continued to show signs of decay and magnetic simplification as it approached the west limb. Region 2489 (N10W08, Dho/beta) indicated some penumbral decay within its trailer spots and was quiet during the period.

An eruption along a filament channel, located near the SW limb, occurred at approximately 29/2100 UTC as viewed in SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery. Associated with this eruption was a long duration C2 x-ray event which began at 29/2048 UTC, reached a maximum at 29/2146 UTC and ended at 29/2257 UTC. SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery observed a coronal mass ejection (CME) off the SW limb, first visible at 29/2117 UTC and 29/2154 UTC, respectively. Initial analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggests the CME does not have an Earth-directed component. However, further analysis will be conducted as additional coronagraph imagery becomes available. No other CMEs were visible in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) over the next three days (30 Jan - 01 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (30 Jan - 01 Feb) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels throughout the period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from initial values near 310 km/s to end-of-period values approaching 270 km/s. IMF total field strength (Bt) values ranged between 2-5 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward value of -3 nT between about 29/1600-1820 UTC. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (30 Jan - 01 Feb) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a background solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels over the next three days (30 Jan - 01 Feb) under a nominal solar wind regime.

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