[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a B9 flare at 10/0250 UTC from Region 2497 (N13E15, Dai/beta-gamma). Region 2497 continued as the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the visible disk. It appeared to increase in areal coverage, primarily in its leader and intermediate spots. A second B9 flare was observed at 09/1939 UTC from Region 2494 (S12W64, Dao/beta). Region 2494 was stable with slight decay noted in its trailer spots. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels all three days (10-12 Feb) with occasional C-class flares likely on days one and two (10-11 Feb) due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 2497 and 2494. Day three (12 Feb) is expected to have solar activity continue at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares as Region 2494 begins to rotate beyond the west limb, leaving Region 2497 as the primary contributing source.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels all three days (10-12 Feb), with a decrease to mainly normal levels the later half of day three (12 Feb) due to electron redistribution from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME effects and a continued return to near ambient conditions. Solar wind speed displayed a steady decline throughout the period, starting at approximately 450 km/s and posting end of period values near 350 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) showed a similar trend, starting at a period maximum of 10 nt and dropping to 3 nT at the time of this report. The Bz component of the IMF was variable ranging between +/-7 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards the sun) sector for the duration of the period.

Forecast: CME effects are waning, therefore, solar wind parameters are expected to continue a trend towards background conditions on day one (10 Feb), with near background conditions likely on day two (11 Feb). A solar sector boundary change (SSBC) is expected sometime on day one or two. Late on day two the IMF is likely to see a minor enhancement due to effects from an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected to see an increase in solar winds and a disturbed IMF due to CIR impacts and effects from the expected positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at predominantly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled period on day one (10 Feb) in response to waning CME effects. Day two (11 Feb) is expected to be mostly quiet until later in the day when unsettled conditions are expected due to the IMF becoming slightly disturbed and enhanced due to an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected see a few periods of active conditions due to CIR and CH HSS effects.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation