[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 20 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class flaring from an unnumbered Region just beyond the SE limb near S25, likely the return of old Region 2490 (S21, L=243). The largest flare of the period was a C2 at 19/2310 UTC. Slight growth was observed in Region 2504 (N12W10, Cro/beta) and new Region 2505 (N07W25, Cao/beta). Region 2501 (N04W01, Cso/beta) was stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels all three days of the forecast period (20-22 Feb).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux of 36,466 pfu observed at 19/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high to very high levels on days one and two (20-21 Feb) and moderate to high levels on day three (22 Feb) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for the duration of the forecast period (20-22 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 560 km/s to near 490 km/s during the period as CH HSS effects continued to diminish. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) with a brief rotation through a positive (away) sector from 19/1720-2205 UTC.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist on day one (20 Feb) in response to waning CH HSS influence. Days two and three (21-22 Feb) should see the solar wind environment gradually return to near background conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions under a waning CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for the rest of day one and persisting through day two (20-21 Feb) as CH HSS influence continues to diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (22 Feb).

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