[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2506 (S06W14, Dai/beta) was the most complex region on the disk. It produced a B6/Sf flare at 29/0430 UTC. The region exhibited dissipation around its intermediate and trailer spot as well as consolidation around the leader spot.

Newly numbered Region 2509 (N09E24, Cro/beta) remained relatively simple with only rudimentary penumbra observed on the trailer spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with an increasing chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (29 Feb - 02 Mar) due to development of regions on the disk and the expected return of old Region 2497 (N12, L=091) on or about 01 March.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at mostly normal to moderate levels with a brief increase to high levels. The maximum flux measured during the period was 1,134 pfu observed at 28/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels all three days of the forecast period (29 Feb - 02 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, reflected a nominal environment. Bt was mostly between 3-5 nT. The Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deflection of -3 nT. Solar wind speeds were in gradual decline, starting the period around 380 km/s and decreasing to around 340 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly in the positive sector, with a brief rotation into the negative sector between approximately 29/0130-0545 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to continue at nominal levels on day one (29 Feb). Day two (01 Mar) is expected to see enhancements from the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (02 Mar) will likely see enhancements in solar wind speed persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels through day one (29 Feb). Day two and three (01-02 Mar) are expected to see conditions increase to unsettled, with isolated periods of active levels, as an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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