[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2528 (N07W16, Cao/beta) produced several B-class flares and displayed spot development in its trailer group. Region 2527 (N14W37) showed signs of decay and returned to a plage group. Region 2526 (S03W82, Hsx/alpha) was stable and absent of significant flare activity as it rotated closer to the western limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (05-07 Apr), with Region 2528 being the most likely contributor day one (05 Apr). A new active region was noted in STEREO-A/EUV imagery, nearing the E limb of the Earth-side disk. This region will contribute to the C-class flare probability on days two and three (06-07 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a max flux of 2,862 pfu at 04/1710 UTC. The increase was likely due to electron redistribution from the previously impacting CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to high levels on day one (05 Apr). Days two and three (06-07 Apr) are likely to to see a decrease to normal to moderate levels due to expected effects from the next CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of near-background conditions. Solar wind speed started and ended the period near 400 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 5 and 8 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a negative (towards the Sun) sector.

Forecast: A weak disturbance in the IMF and a slight increase in solar wind speed is expected on day one (05 Apr) due to influences from another isolated, negative polarity CH HSS rotating into a geoeffective position. This CH HSS is not a recurrent feature, is rather far N of the solar equator, and was not connected with the southern polar crown CH, therefore, it is not likely to initiate a marked change to the space environment. Day two (06 Apr) is likely to see waning conditions from any CH HSS effects. The IMF is likely to become disturbed again on day three (07 Apr) due to an anticipated solar sector boundary change (SSBC), followed by a possible CIR ahead of a recurrent, isolated, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated period of active levels on day one (05 Apr) due to effects from the expected negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (06 Apr) is expected to see quiet to unsettled responses as CH HSS effects wane. Day three (07 Apr) is likely to experience quiet to active levels in response to effects from the anticipated SSBC, CIR and positive polarity CH HSS.

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