[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels as Region 2529 (N10W87, Cko/beta) produced a C1/3f flare at 19/2302 UTC. The region also produced several low level B-class flares as it continued its migration closer to the west limb. The only other numbered sunspot group, Region 2532 (N06E21, Cao/beta), was absent of significant flare activity and showed signs of decay in its leader spot area. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate) on day one (20 Apr). Day two (21 Apr) is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class activity (R1-Minor to R2-Moderate). As Region 2529 rotates around the west limb, activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class activity on day three (22 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the duration of the forecast period (20-22 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds were between 330-350 km/s. Total field (Bt)showed a gradual increase through the period from 5 nT to 9 nT. The Bz component was northward for the first half of the period before a sustained southward orientation was observed from near 20/0400 - 20/1000 UTC, reaching a maximum deflection of -7 nT. Phi angle remained in the positive sector during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at normal levels, under a background solar wind regime, for the next three days (20-22 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions possible for the next three days (20-22 Apr).

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