[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2539 (N18E37, Cao/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1 at 30/1047 UTC. Region 2536 exhibited consolidation in its leader spot. Region 2535 (N05W06, Cso/beta) showed decay near the leader spot. All other active regions were relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days of the period (30 Apr - 02 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal levels on days one and two (30 Apr - 01 May) due to electron redistribution from expected CIR and CME effects. By day three (02 May), electron flux levels are expected to rise to moderate to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, began the period under nominal solar wind conditions. Around 30/0300 UTC, the total magnetic field strength dropped to around 1-2 nT until an increase to 8nT was observed between 30/0600-0700 UTC. No significant periods of Bz south were observed during over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds have been relatively low, between 340-380 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the positive (away) sector until a transition to the negative (towards) sector was observed after 30/0629 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to undergo further enhancement on day one (30 Apr) as a CIR transitions into a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhancements in the solar wind are likely to persist into day two (01 May). An additional enhancement is possible on day two as the periphery of the 28 Apr CME passes by Earth. A trend towards background conditions is expected on day three (02 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: On day one (30 Apr), the geomagnetic field is likely to reach active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are likely for day two (01 May) as CH HSS effects continue coupled with the possible influences from the periphery of the 28 Apr CME. By day three (02 May), mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as CH HSS and CME effects wane.

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